Security Incidents in Syrian Arab Republic: Trends and Patterns

In the Syrian Arab Republic... 289 humanitarian workers have died, 228 humanitarian workers have been wounded, 70 humanitarian workers have been kidnapped.

1 Executive Summary

This report examines patterns in security incidents affecting humanitarian workers in the Syrian Arab Republic over more than a decade of conflict. Violence has shifted alongside major geopolitical events—from the Syrian uprising and rise of ISIS to the collapse of the Assad regime in 2024.

Key findings include:

• Aerial bombardment and shelling are the most frequent attack methods, reflecting state-driven warfare and urban conflict.
• Combat and crossfire dominate the context, indicating that most incidents occur near frontlines rather than through targeted violence.
• Ambushes and raids continue to pose risks, especially during movement through contested areas.
• National staff face disproportionate risk, with the vast majority of casualties across all categories.
• High-impact incidents are concentrated at project sites and compounds, reinforcing the need for fixed-site preparedness.

These trends highlight the urgency of conflict-sensitive planning, improved duty-of-care for national staff, and sustained policy advocacy to protect humanitarian access in Syria.

2 Background: The Conflict

2.1 Historical Context

The Syrian conflict represents one of the most devastating and complex crises of the 21st century. Beginning as peaceful pro-democracy protests in 2011 during the Arab Spring, it rapidly escalated into a full-scale civil war when the Bashar al-Assad regime responded with violent crackdowns (Foreign Relations 2024). The conflict evolved into a multi-sided proxy war with international powers backing different factions:

• 2011: Protests against Assad’s authoritarian regime met with violent government response
• 2012-2013: Formation of rebel groups and escalation to full civil war
• 2014-2015: Rise of ISIS capturing significant Syrian territory
• 2015: Russian military intervention supporting the Assad regime
• 2016-2019: Government forces recapture key cities including Aleppo and eastern Ghouta
• 2019-2020: Turkish operations against Kurdish forces in northern Syria
• 2020-2023: Relatively frozen conflict lines with occasional flare-ups

2.2 Recent Escalation

The Syrian conflict entered a dramatic new phase in late 2024 with the sudden collapse of the Assad regime after 50 years of family rule. This upheaval has fundamentally altered the dynamics of the war:

• November 30, 2024: Rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) seized Aleppo
• December 8, 2024: Damascus fell to rebel forces, ending the Assad dynasty with Bashar al-Assad fleeing to Moscow
• 600,000+ estimated deaths since the beginning of the conflict
• 6.9 million internally displaced persons
• 5.4 million refugees abroad
• Multiple concurrent conflicts continuing across Syrian territory:
  • Kurdish forces clashing with Arab tribes in northeast
  • Islamic State maintaining presence and launching attacks
  • Israeli strikes against Iranian and Syrian military positions
  • Iran-backed militias targeting U.S. forces in eastern Syria

Map of Incidents

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3 Temporal Trends in Security Incidents

3.1 Incident Frequency Over Time

Figure 1: Security incidents in Syria from 2011 to 2025

3.1.1 Analysis of Incident Trends

The incident timeline in Syria reveals a strong link between major geopolitical events and spikes in humanitarian security threats:

• 2011–2013: The Syrian uprising and subsequent use of chemical weapons mark a dramatic rise in conflict intensity, with incidents peaking during ISIS’s territorial expansion.
• 2015: A sharp drop in incidents follows, coinciding with the start of Russian intervention, likely signaling a shift in control and tactics.
• 2016–2018: Conflict intensifies again with the fall of Aleppo and the US withdrawal from northeast Syria, resulting in the highest recorded incident levels.
• 2020–2021: A steep decline occurs as territorial control consolidates.
• 2023–2024: A brief resurgence follows the devastating earthquake and eventual collapse of the Assad regime, reflecting renewed instability.

These trends highlight how international involvement, regime change, and territorial shifts consistently shape the security landscape for humanitarian operations in Syria.

4 Nature of Security Incidents

4.1 Predominant Attack Types

Figure 2: Most common types of attacks

4.1.1 Analysis of Attack Methods

4.1.2 Analysis of Attack Methods

Aerial bombardment is the most frequently reported attack method, followed by shelling, making Syria unique among conflict zones where indirect fire and airstrikes dominate the threat landscape. These tactics reflect state-level military engagement and urban warfare dynamics, especially during regime offensives.

Shooting and kidnapping also appear prominently, pointing to both conventional ground combat and targeted abduction of humanitarian personnel. Lower-frequency methods such as bodily assault, vehicle-borne IEDs, and landmines indicate a wide tactical range used by both state and non-state actors.

This distribution underscores the need for protective infrastructure in high-risk areas, early-warning systems during aerial campaigns, and mobility protocols to avoid exposure during bombardments and shelling.

4.2 Attack Contexts

Figure 3: Security incidents by attack context

4.2.1 Analysis of Attack Contexts

Combat or crossfire is by far the most common context of security incidents in Syria, reflecting the country’s prolonged urban warfare and front-line volatility. This indicates that many humanitarian actors are unintentionally caught in large-scale hostilities, rather than being directly targeted.

Other contexts such as individual attacks, ambushes, and raids occur less frequently but still represent deliberate violence, especially against aid staff in transit or localized settings. A significant number of incidents are listed as unknown, pointing to information gaps in chaotic environments.

The dominance of combat-related contexts underscores the urgent need for real-time conflict mapping, coordination with protection clusters, and protocols for operations near frontlines or contested zones.

4.3 Location of Attack

Figure 4: Most common attack locations

4.3.1 Analysis of Attack Locations

most attacks occurred at project sites, on roads, and in public locations—highlighting the widespread insecurity across operational, transit, and civilian spaces.

5 Human Impact of Security Incidents

5.1 Casualties by Category

Figure 5: Total casualties in Palestine by category

5.1.1 Analysis of Casualty Patterns

The overwhelming majority of casualties in Syria are nationals, who account for nearly all reported deaths, injuries, and kidnappings. This reflects their greater exposure to conflict zones and frontline operations compared to international staff, who typically work in more secure or urban environments.

The high number of national fatalities suggests that many incidents are either highly lethal or occur in areas with limited access to emergency care. In contrast, international casualties remain minimal, likely due to stronger protection protocols, lower deployment in high-risk zones, and more rapid evacuation options.

These disparities highlight the urgent need for equitable duty-of-care policies and enhanced security measures for national staff, who remain the backbone of humanitarian efforts in Syria’s most dangerous regions.

6 Major Incidents

6.1 Top 5 Most Impactful Security Incidents

Table 1: Most impactful security incidents (by total affected)

	Year	Location	Total Affected	Killed	Wounded	Context	Actor Type
1546	2013	Project site	11	0	11	Combat/Crossfire	Unknown
2020	2016	Project site	9	9	0	Combat/Crossfire	Foreign or coalition forces
2216	2017	Office/compound	9	9	0	Combat/Crossfire	Foreign or coalition forces
3234	2021	Project site	8	4	4	Combat/Crossfire	Unknown
1604	2013	Road	7	0	0	Ambush	Non-state armed group: Global

6.1.1 Analysis of Major Incidents

The most severe incidents in Syria primarily occurred at project sites and compounds, with nearly all involving combat or crossfire:

• The deadliest incidents occurred in 2016 and 2017, each resulting in 9 fatalities with no survivors—highlighting the intensity of direct armed clashes.
• The highest total casualty incident in 2013 left 11 people wounded at a project site, suggesting exposure to indiscriminate violence rather than targeted attack.
• While most top incidents occurred in work-related facilities, one 2013 ambush on a road highlights persistent risks during movement, even when fatalities were avoided.
• All incidents involved combat zones, underscoring the blurred lines between humanitarian operations and active conflict environments in Syria.

These events emphasize the critical need for conflict-sensitive planning, real-time situational awareness, and investment in protective infrastructure at operational sites.

For more detailed information on the Syrian conflict timeline, see the Council on Foreign Relations Conflict Tracker.

7 Conclusions and Recommendations

7.1 Key Findings

• Incident patterns mirror key conflict events, including spikes during ISIS expansion, regime offensives, and the 2024 collapse of Assad’s government.
• Aerial attacks and indirect fire dominate the attack profile, setting Syria apart from ground-focused conflicts.
• Most incidents occur during combat or crossfire, rather than direct targeting of humanitarian actors.
• Nationals account for the vast majority of deaths, injuries, and kidnappings, indicating significant disparities in exposure and risk.
• Project sites and offices are common locations for major incidents, especially in heavily militarized zones.

7.2 Recommendations

7.2.1 For Security Planning

• Map and monitor high-risk areas near frontlines, with live updates on aerial activity and shelling zones.
• Establish hardened infrastructure and underground shelters at compounds and project sites.
• Develop rapid evacuation protocols tailored to conflict escalation patterns.

7.2.2 For Humanitarian Organizations

• Provide personal protective equipment and conflict awareness training to national staff in volatile areas.
• Strengthen coordination with local actors and communities to improve incident reporting and early warnings.
• Scale up remote programming in areas with ongoing aerial bombardment or crossfire.

7.2.3 For Policy Development

• Advocate for international enforcement of humanitarian access protections, particularly in aerial bombardment zones.
• Support diplomatic efforts that promote ceasefires and demilitarized corridors for humanitarian operations.
• Back UN and independent investigations into attacks on aid workers and facilities.

7.2.4 For Future Research

• Analyze how territorial control shifts impact humanitarian security in real time.
• Investigate long-term mental health outcomes for frontline national staff.
• Study the role of infrastructure damage (e.g., hospitals, water, roads) on aid delivery and mobility.

References

Foreign Relations, Council on. 2024. “Conflict in Syria.” https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-syria.